Looking ahead to the general trend of China’s pharmaceutical economy in 2021

In the overall pace of gradual recovery, some sub-sectors still have not recovered from the epidemic. From January to October, the revenue of the chemical preparation industry fell by 4.3% year-on-year, and profits fell by 9.3%. Nearly half of the net profits of related listed companies were losses. The revenue and profit of the Chinese patent medicine manufacturing industry also fell by more than 5%. It can be seen that not many companies can really benefit from the epidemic. 2021 will be a test year for companies to break through barriers and resume growth.
The upstream of the pharmaceutical industry is moving forward under the pressure of the epidemic, and the downstream terminal market has also experienced an unprecedented negative growth in the past decade due to the epidemic. At present, China’s drug sales are gradually divided into two types of terminal formats, online and offline. Offline terminals include hospitals, physical pharmacies and primary medical institutions, and online terminals include new retail formats such as platform e-commerce, vertical e-commerce, and Internet hospitals. Catalyzed by the epidemic, the differentiation of these four terminals has become more obvious.
Drug sales in offline hospitals have dropped significantly, mainly because the number of doctors visits due to epidemic prevention and control has decreased significantly. According to the latest data from the Health Commission, from January to August, the total number of visits in medical and health institutions across the country fell by 16.1% year-on-year, of which hospitals fell by 17.2% year-on-year, and primary medical and health institutions fell by 13.8% year-on-year. With the shrinking, coupled with the superposition of factors such as medical insurance control fees and centralized procurement price limits, it is expected that in 2020, the hospital market’s drug sales will fall by 8.5% year-on-year, and the primary medical terminal will also drop by 10.9%. During the first mention of the fourth terminal of drug sales, pharmacies have become the main place for people to buy drugs. Under the stimulus of demand, the sales of pharmacies have maintained overall growth, and the growth rate has increased from 0.6% in the first quarter to 4.6% in the third quarter. It is expected that the whole year of this year It can grow by 6%. In the first half of 2020, the number of new pharmacies will reach 7,232, and the total number of pharmacies nationwide has exceeded 530,000. The performance of the four major listed chain companies has also maintained a rapid growth of more than 20%. From the data of sample pharmacies, more than 40% of pharmacies still had negative growth in the first quarter, and the reshuffle of the pharmacy circle will accelerate.
However, physical pharmacies have inevitably encountered a strong impact from e-commerce. During the epidemic, the transaction activity of major pharmaceutical e-commerce platforms increased significantly. According to the data monitored by the Internet Monitoring Center, the online drug sales of more than 200 online pharmacies on the e-commerce platform reached 43.47 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2020, a year-on-year increase of 42.7%.
As of now, there are more than 900 Internet hospitals in the country. It is conservatively estimated that their market size will exceed 94 billion yuan, of which medicine accounts for nearly half. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the state will focus on supporting the development of Internet medical care. In the future, online hospitals May become the standard equipment of physical hospitals. ”

As Chinese society enters the aging process, the number of patients with chronic diseases has increased, and the public has gradually formed the habit of buying drugs online. While pharmaceutical e-commerce companies are welcoming huge opportunities, their false information, illegal sales and other problems will also become prominent, but drug consumption is on the line Upward shifting is a major trend. Corresponding policies such as medical insurance payment and safety supervision will be put in place one after another. Online terminals in the process of standardization will have a huge impact on traditional physical pharmacies. For physical pharmacies that are already facing the pressure of diversion of customer flow caused by the coordination of outpatient clinics, and the pressure of centralized procurement and price limit, it will be an inevitable choice to actively embrace the Internet.

Post time:May-17-2021

Post time:05-17-21
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